Four teams still in relegation danger with just one game to go: Analysing who needs what to survive and ALL the possible permutations

As we reach the final day of the season, four teams in the Portuguese top flight are yet to secure their top flight status, with Portimonense, Boavista, Rio Ave and Farense all still in contention to suffer the drop.

Madeiran outfit Nacional have already been relegated, unable to climb off bottom of the table following a 3-0 loss to Famalicao, though with one automatic relegation spot still to be confirmed and the newly introduced relegation play-off place also set to be decided, there is much to play for at the root of the table.

Currently, Farense occupy 17th in Portugal - if they remain there by the end of the final week of fixtures, they will suffer immediate relegation back to the Portuguese second division. Just above them in 16th heading into the final set of matches is Rio Ave, who qualified for the Europa League play-offs last season after finishing 5th under the management of Carlos Carvalhal. If they fail to climb higher than that, they will have to play another tie against the side that finishes 3rd in the second tier - either Vizela or Arouca - to preserve their top flight status.

However, there is still plenty of potential movement to take place at the bottom of the league, with Portimonense in 14th still under threat of automatic relegation should results go against them on the final day.

Here is what the table looks like ahead of the 34th round of fixtures:

Farense and Rio Ave are the two sides with all the work to do, each two points off guaranteed survival, while Portimonense - 3 points clear of both - are almost safe, but still have some work to do to ensure they avoid a shock final day relegation.

Some may understandably think that their respectable goal difference only further aids Portimonense’s survival aspirations - though in Portugal, head-to-head record is used to separate teams that finish on the same points, rather than goal difference. It is one final curveball that could have a serious say in who stays up, and who goes down.

Who plays who on the final day?

Rio Ave are perhaps the side with the most favourable final day fixture, playing against already relegated Nacional, while Farense have a very tough test, having to face a fully motivated Santa Clara side that are in a great position to secure European football next term. Portimonense then face one of the best in the country in SC Braga, while Boavista have a clash with Gil Vicente, a side residing in the middle of the table.

Portimonense vs Braga (4th)

Gil Vicente (11th) vs Boavista

Nacional (18th) vs Rio Ave

Santa Clara (7th) vs Farense

With all matches taking place simultaneously, there is a good chance that the order of the clubs will be changing quite significantly throughout the 90 minute matches - though it is how the matches finish that’s all that really matters.

All the potential permutations of the relegation battle

Below is a table that shows which team will suffer automatic relegation with each potential combination of results, as well as the side that would be placed in the relegation play-off spot:

Though a lot of information to take in, what immediately becomes obvious by the colour scheme is that Farense (shown in yellow/brown) and Rio Ave (green) are by far the most likely sides to suffer automatic relegation - and for Boavista and Portimonense to suffer the drop, very specific combinations of results would need to occur.

In Portimonense’s case, only one of all the 81 possible combinations would send them down - and it would require all four sides to finish on the same points. Portimonense would need to suffer defeat against Braga, Boavista would need to secure just a draw versus Gil Vicente, and Farense and Rio Ave would both need to manage to win against Santa Clara and Nacional respectively. In this situation, all four sides would finish the league on 34 points.

In such a scenario, it would go to a four-way ‘head-to-head’ - essentially a mini table would have to be created to separate the four sides, and Portimonense, though having the best goal difference, would be automatically relegated as a result. Below shows the table taking into account just the scores between the four clubs, illustrating why this scenario would trigger Portimonense’s relegation.

This is the only circumstance that would send Portimonense down automatically, proving just what a solid position they are in heading into the final set of fixtures - but ultimately the possibility of automatic relegation does still exist.

There are then seven additional circumstances where Portimonense would end up in the relegation play-off place - though it would require Portimonense losing and certain results going against them.

For Boavista, there is a slightly higher chance of suffering relegation, with five of the 81 possible results combinations leading to the 2001 Primeira Liga champions being relegated to the second division. That therefore still appears to be rather unlikely, on paper at least, though there is a far more substantial possibility that they fall into the relegation play-off place by the end of the season, with 17 circumstances causing them to finish 16th in the standings.

The prognosis is rather more bleak for Rio Ave and, in particular, Farense. Only 11 result combinations lead to Farense avoiding the potential relegation places altogether. They would need to secure victory and hope Boavista and Rio Ave both fail to win.

All is not lost for Farense, though. If they do indeed manage to beat Santa Clara on the final day, their chances of at least avoiding the automatic relegation berth is actually quite high. Discounting all the possible results combinations where Farense fail to win, there are 27 combinations remaining - and Farense suffer automatic relegation in only 3 of them.

Indeed, if Farense win, they would only suffer automatic relegation if both Boavista and Rio Ave win as well, so if they can do their part, their chances of survival are still relatively strong, even if it is out of their hands.

For Rio Ave, who were seconds away from beating AC Milan at the start of the season and qualifying for the Europa League group stage, there is work to be done - although they are in a good position in that they will be playing against already-relegated Nacional. Win the game, and worst-case scenario is that they will be in the relegation play-off places at the end of the season. Perhaps more likely, however, is avoiding the threat of relegation altogether.

Prediction?

Ultimately, it is very difficult to call. With Farense the only side having to face a team with something significant still to play for, the other three matches really depend on how motivated the three opponents are.

For that reason, it is very difficult to envisage Farense managing to beat Santa Clara, who are desperately hunting down a Europe Conference League place. Safe in the knowledge that Vitoria Guimaraes have to play Benfica, they will feel that beating Nacional would be enough to see them leapfrog Vitoria and claim the final European berth. Farense may battle to a draw, but considering how impressive Santa Clara have been this season, defeat seems unlikely - but not certain by any means.

Nevertheless, if Farense do fall to a defeat, they will be joining Nacional in the second division next season. If they manage a draw, they would still have a chance of at least temporary survival, but would need Rio Ave to lose versus Nacional - and that seems incredibly unlikely considering the situation. Farense are therefore a reasonable bet to go down automatically - though the relegation play-off place would still be unknown.

With Rio Ave expected to win against Nacional, the pressure will be on both Boavista and Portimonense; should Boavista fail to beat Gil Vicente, they would drop into the relegation play-off place in Rio Ave’s place - unless Portimonense also lose, in which case a draw vs Gil Vicente would be sufficient even if Rio Ave win.

Though Gil Vicente don’t have anything major to play for, ultimately they will be hoping to finish as high in the table as possible, so Boavista will still be made to work in that clash, and a draw is very possible. That would only be enough if Portimonense then lose against Braga - which is more than possible. However, with Braga very likely to have one eye firmly on the Portuguese Cup Final versus Benfica, they will likely play a rotated side, so Portimonense should have enough to get a draw versus Braga.

With the prediction being that Farense lose, Rio Ave win, and Boavista and Portimonense both draw, Farense would be the side to go down automatically, while Boavista would finish in the relegation play-off place. But it is very difficult to call, and all four sides have work to do to avoid the drop in what is sure to be an exciting final day in Portuguese football.