Analysts Gracenote have revealed that Portugal are now only the third most likely nation to make it out of their Euro 2020 qualifying group.
Portugal have drawn their first two matches of the qualifying campaign - against both Ukraine and Serbia - both of which were played at home.
The results leave Portugal 3rd in the group, 2 points off Ukraine in first and one point below Luxembourg. Further to that, they are only a single point above Serbia who have a game in hand.
As a result, they have seen their chances of qualifying for the Euro 2020 finals reduce significantly - and statistically, they are currently expected not to finish in the top 2 of the group.
Gracenote have given Ukraine a 71% chance of making it out of group B, while they say there is a 67% chance that Serbia finish in the top two.
Portugal, meanwhile, only have a 59% chance of emerging from group B, meaning they are expected to have to use the playoffs to make the Euros.
Before the first group match was played, Portugal were given an 85% chance of making Euro 2020 directly from group B, making them the sixth most likely nation of all of UEFA's members to make it to the Euro finals through the qualifiers, only behind France, Belgium, England, Spain and The Netherlands.
They were one of eight teams given at least an 80% chance to directly qualify for the European Championship, but those odds have been slashed after failure to win either of their home matches so far.
Portugal have now been given a 41% chance of having to use the play-offs, much higher than the 15% originally given before the qualifiers began.
Ukraine, meanwhile, have shot up in the expectations of the analysts, who had them outside of the top 20 before the qualifiers began.
The 20 teams most likely to make the Euros according to Gracenote can be seen below:
ANALYSIS: #Euro2020 qualification chances— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) March 27, 2019
- After just 2 matches, 🇧🇪Belgium, 🏴England & 🇫🇷France are almost certain of Euro 2020 places.
- 🇩🇪Germany, 🇪🇸Spain, 🇵🇱Poland 🇮🇹Italy & 🇨🇭Switzerland are also in good shape.
- 🇺🇦Ukraine & 🇮🇱Israel up into 20 most likely qualifiers. pic.twitter.com/OKpFvb7nqn